One of the hardest things for The Vanguard (AKA Keith Raniere) to accept about his new reality is that at least one of his co-defendants is, according to the AUSA Moira Kim Penza, close to working out a plea deal.
The speculation is that it’s Nancy Salzman who’s ready to play “Queen For A Day” and answer all the questions that federal investigators would like to ask her about Raniere and the illegal enterprise that, along with the help of many others (especially Clare Bronfman and Sara Bronfman-Igtet), he’s operated for almost two decades.
That makes sense for lots of reasons:
– Keith unceremoniously replaced her with Clare as the Queen Bee in his operation;
– Because Keith declared that she has issues with money, Clare put her on an allowance – and basically made her beg for money every month;
– Keith reneged on his promise to impregnate her daughter, Lauren – which likely means that Lauren will never experience the joys of motherhood;
– Keith chose to make Allison Mack his #1 Slave rather than Lauren;
– One of her daughters has already been charged – and there is a strong possibility that the Feds could also charge her other daughter, Michelle, and Michelle’s husband, Ben Meyers;
– Nancy is supposedly dealing with a “life-threatening illness” – and would probably prefer not to die in prison; and
– Nancy has lots of information to trade for a reduced prison sentence.
But as he walks around all day in his cellblock – or lies awake on his bunk at night – Vanguard has got to be wondering about who else might flip on him. And, unfortunately for him, there are a lot of possibilities for him to consider:
Here are a few with our odds:
– Lauren Salzman (90% Probability): She’s gone out of her way to avoid eye contact with Vanguard in their last two court appearances. If Nancy is cutting a deal, wouldn’t it make sense for her to include Lauren in it?
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– Michelle Salzman-Meyers (90% Probability): If Nancy’s going to save one daughter, she can’t very well abandon the other.
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– Ben Meyers (90% Probability): In addition to whatever help he can get from Nancy, he also has a lot of valuable info about all of Raniere’s computer-related crimes.
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– Allison Mack (10% Probability): Although some think that being away from Raniere will help clear her head, I think she’s simply too indoctrinated to turn on Keith. And she has this Joan-of-Arc self-image that can only be fulfilled if she “stands by her man” and goes to trial – and prison – with him.
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– Kathy Russell (10% Probability): In addition to not being very bright, Kathy has the extra impediment of having totally abandoned her family and non-NXIVM friends for the last 15+ years. At this point, the only way for her to justify all her poor decisions is to see this thing through and go to prison.
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– Karen Unterreiner (80% Probability): The person who many consider to the real brains behind Raniere’s criminal enterprise has been a virtual ghost since Raniere’s arrest (Many believe that she’s already flipped). It’s hard to believe that the Feds would bother arresting a low-level bookkeeper like Kathy Russell and let Karen off the hook.
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– Karen Abney (50% Probability): After she replaced Kathy Russell as NXIVM’s de facto Chief Financial Officer, she became aware of a lot of Raniere’s financial crimes. And she’s got $25,000 tied up in Kathy Russell’s bail bond.
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– Matt McMorris (50% Probability): The man who once worked for Barbara Bouchey and who fraudulently claimed to be a licensed CPA handled all the financial paperwork for many of Raniere’s shell companies – and for the Bronfman sisters’ phony charities. He has enough inside info to make himself a deal, provided that he does so before he gets indicted.
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– Steve Ose (50% Probability): He’s been involved with Raniere’s criminal activities since the Consumer Buyline days – and could provide a treasure trove of information about all of Raniere’s computer-related crimes. But he’s still hiding out in Texas – and hoping that the Feds have forgotten about him.
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– James Del Negro (30% Probability): He’s the guy who’s on the paperwork for lots of Raniere’s companies (There are so many that he couldn’t even remember some of them when he was cross-examined by Susan Dones during her bankruptcy case). But a lot of people think that Jim is just too dumb to parlay his knowledge into a decent plea deal.
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– Sara Bronfman (60% Probability): Sara is a mom now – and, although not especially bright, she’s got her hubby, the would-be dictator of Libya, to counsel her through the flipping process. And she’s probably willing to pay $100 million or so in fines and penalties in order to remain in Europe for the rest of her life.
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But Vanguard’s biggest fear of all has got to be that Clare Bronfman finally comes to her senses and realizes how Raniere has played her for a fool for the last 15 years. If that happens – and I think it’s at least a 30% probability right now – it’s game over for The Vanguard.
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